Authors: Eldin Joshy, Vishakha Singh, M Sai Saranya, Staicy Susan Thomas, Deepika Boora, Shriya Agnihotri, Kalika Kumari, Shourya Bahl

Abstract

This study analyses the structural paradox in India’s job market, where high macroeconomic growth and youth moving towards higher education coexist with the problem of unemployment and underemployment among educated youth. Based on secondary macro-level data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Reports (2017-18 to 2023-24) and the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) sectoral projections, the study employs a descriptive and comparative trend-analysis framework using the Usual Status (ps+ss) approach. The findings reveal a quantitative expansion in labour supply, with aggregate graduate Labour Force Participation Rates (LFPR) rising from 60% to 66.20%, heavily driven by a 13.1% increase in rural female participation. At the same time, aggregate graduate unemployment declined to 13% by 2023-24. However, a deeper qualitative mismatch persists: labour market absorption is structurally skewed toward informality, with rural graduate self-employment rising to 64.7% while secure, regular salaried employment stagnates at 12.7%. Further, a significant sectoral divergence exists between capital-intensive, high-Gross Value Added (GVA) industries and low-productivity, high-employment multiplier sectors. Ultimately, the paper highlights a lack of coordination between the theoretical results of formal higher education and the advanced technical, digital, and personal competencies demanded by India’s fastest-growing sectors.

Keywords: Educated Unemployment, Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), Skill Mismatch, National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC), Employment Quality