Authors: Ashutosh kumar Singh, Shivangi Mishra, Swapnil Sainath Bhosale, Shreyas Shivhare, Muskan Kumari

Abstract

Energy security remains a critical priority for a developing country like India, with over 85% of its crude oil imports—more than 60% sourced from Gulf nations—and over 50% dependence on LPG imports. Since Independence, India has carefully balanced its engagement in the volatile West Asian region to maintain stable relations and ensure uninterrupted energy flows. Over time, this approach has evolved from non-alignment to a policy of multi-alignment, reflecting a shift from soft power to smart power. India’s energy security strategy rests on diversified partnerships that mitigate regional rivalries while preserving strategic autonomy and minimizing supply disruptions.

This study examines how India employs multi-alignment diplomacy in West Asia to secure its energy supplies while navigating regional rivalries. It applies the theoretical frameworks of Neoclassical Realism and Strategic Hedging to explain these dynamics. Drawing on Gideon Rose and Randall Schweller, Neoclassical Realism highlights the interplay of systemic pressures and domestic leadership, while Strategic Hedging explains India’s calibrated balancing amid shifting alliances.

Existing literature often treats energy security and West Asia policy separately, lacking integrated theoretical analysis. This study bridges this gap through a qualitative-dominant mixed-methods approach, using policy documents, interviews, and secondary sources to provide a comprehensive assessment.

Introduction

India’s energy security feels pretty precarious right now. As the third-largest energy consumer globally, India is largely dependent on imports, sourcing more than 85% of its crude oil and more than half of its natural gas. A large share of this, exceeding 60%, comes from Gulf nations, with approximately 40% transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that has consistently demonstrated its vulnerability.

 Historical records show a distinct pattern of oil crises having a major impact on India. The 1973 Oil Crisis, set off by the Yom Kippur War and the OPEC embargo, caused oil prices to quadruple. In this period, India’s import costs rose sharply from $500 million to $1.3 billion, accounting for almost 40% of its export earnings. After Iraq invaded Kuwait, the 1990 Gulf War caused oil prices to surge by 140%, driving India’s oil expenses to approximately ₹10,820 crore and triggering reserve shortfalls and credit downgrades. In 2008, attacks on tankers near Hormuz led to supply disruptions, and since 2023, Houthi strikes in the Red Sea have persisted in threatening these shipping lanes. The most recent alarm occurred on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces-initiated Operation Lion’s Roar against Iran. This led Iran to launch a missile strike across Gulf states and to threaten closing the Strait of Hormuz. Within days, Brent crude prices jumped by 10-13%, climbing to $119.50 per barrel.

India’s approach to the situation is particularly noteworthy. Rather than committing to a single position, India has opted for a multi-alignment approach, keeping active relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, and Israel all at once, even though these countries frequently find themselves on opposing sides of the same disputes. This instinct isn’t new. Since Nehru’s non-alignment era, India has consistently avoided being confined to a single camp, and today’s multi-alignment is essentially that same strategy adapted to a much more complicated global landscape.

This paper investigates a straightforward but important question: “how does India use multi-alignment diplomacy in West Asia to secure its energy supplies while navigating deep regional rivalries?” Our argument is that India’s strategy of diversifying its partnerships across competing Gulf powers is what gives it both supply resilience and strategic autonomy, and that this is a deliberate, rational choice rather than diplomatic fence-sitting. Employing a neoclassical realist perspective, this analysis goes beyond simply saying that states react to external stimuli, instead probing the specific motivations behind India’s actions, including internal economic pressures, leadership viewpoints, and the prevailing strategic culture.

 India’s actions in 2026 exemplify this: The evacuation of around 67,000 nationals from the Gulf, the docking of an Iranian naval vessel in Kochi, and simultaneous cooperation with Gulf partners, alongside a diversification of crude oil sourcing towards Russia and the United States. These measures, far from being independent of one another, represent components of a carefully crafted balancing strategy.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This research is theoretically grounded in Neoclassical Realism and Strategic Hedging, which integrates systemic pressures, domestic variables, and leadership perceptions, along with insights from Foreign Policy Analysis and International Political Economy. Rather than assuming that states respond automatically to structural constraints, this perspective emphasizes how policymakers interpret external challenges and translate them into concrete policy choices. This framework enables a multi-level explanation of India’s strategic behaviour in West Asia, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and their implications for energy security and diplomatic engagement. It helps explain how India manages relations with competing regional actors while safeguarding its economic and strategic interests.

Neoclassical realism, as articulated by Gideon Rose (1998) and further developed by Randall Schweller, argues that while systemic factors such as regional rivalries and shifting power dynamics shape the external environment of states, domestic priorities and leadership perceptions (rise of pragmatic leaders like Mohammad-Bin-Salman, Mohammad-Bin-Zayed-Al-Nahan, Narendra Modi etc.) ultimately influence specific foreign policy choices. Complementing this perspective, strategic hedging explains how states manage uncertainty by cultivating relations with multiple competing actors rather than aligning exclusively with a single bloc.

In the case of India, this perspective helps explain its policy of multi-alignment, whereby New Delhi simultaneously maintains cooperative relations with actors such as Israel, Iran, and Gulf states, ensuring stable energy access while preserving strategic autonomy amid the complex geopolitical landscape of the region.

Systemic-Level Variables: The confrontation between Israel and Iran has evolved into a wider regional crisis, particularly after the launch of Operation Lion’s Roar on 28 February 2026, when Israeli and US forces carried out coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, U.S. bases, and allied states across the Gulf region, expanding the conflict into a broader regional confrontation.

The escalation   had major implications for global energy security. Iran declared restrictions on shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, while missile and drone attacks targeted infrastructure and shipping in the Gulf. These developments have heightened volatility in global oil markets and disrupted maritime trade routes.

Within this fragmented and crisis-prone regional order, India has pursued a policy of multi-alignment and strategic hedging rather than taking sides in the conflict. New Delhi has emphasized de-escalation and dialogue while maintaining engagement with competing regional actors, including Israel, Iran, and Gulf partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Cognitive & Perceptual Variables (Strategic Culture and Decision-Making):

Neoclassical Realism emphasizes that foreign policy decisions are not determined solely by systemic pressures but are also shaped by leaders’ perceptions, strategic culture, and policy priorities. Drawing on insights from Foreign Policy Analysis, particularly the work of Ole Holsti and Robert Jervis, this section highlights how cognitive variables such as threat perception, diplomatic priorities, and leadership judgement influence India’s policy choices in West Asia.

India’s strategic culture traditionally emphasises diplomatic autonomy, pragmatic engagement, and the protection of national interests during regional crises. This approach became evident during the escalation of tensions in early 2026 involving Israel and Iran. According to statements by the Ministry of External Affairs, the Government of India adopted a carefully calibrated response focused on three key priorities: advocating peace and de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy, ensuring the safety and well-being of the large Indian diaspora in Gulf countries, and safeguarding national interests such as energy security and trade flows.

III. Domestic-Level Variables:

Domestic economic imperatives particularly energy security play a decisive role in shaping the foreign policy behaviour of India in West Asia. India remains highly dependent on imported hydrocarbons, with more than 85–90% of its crude oil requirements sourced from abroad, much of it historically supplied by Gulf producers. Consequently, geopolitical disruptions in the region directly affect India’s economic stability, industrial production, and energy pricing.

The escalation of tensions in 2026, including disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor through which nearly 20% of global seaborne oil trade passes, has highlighted the vulnerability of India’s energy supply chains. Approximately 40% of India’s oil imports still transit through this chokepoint, making any blockade or instability in the Gulf region a major strategic concern.

To mitigate these risks, India has adopted several domestic and economic measures. The country currently maintains over 250 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum product reserves, equivalent to roughly seven to eight weeks of supply, stored across strategic petroleum reserve facilities such as those in Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, and Padur.

Structural Pressures and External Constraints:

India’s energy diplomacy in West Asia is shaped not only by domestic economic needs but also by external geopolitical pressures and structural constraints in the international system. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly the ongoing conflict and blockade have intensified concerns regarding the security of ships navigating Strait of Hormuz. Given that a substantial share of India’s crude oil imports passes through this chokepoint, any disruption caused by military escalation or blockades directly threatens the stability of India’s energy supply chains and global oil prices.

At the same time, India faces broader geopolitical pressures from major powers engaged in the region. India continues to sustain engagement with Iran due to its strategic location and long-standing energy ties, while simultaneously strengthening partnerships with Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In response to these structural pressures, India has adopted a strategic hedging policy. By maintaining diplomatic engagement with rival regional actors, India seeks to mitigate geopolitical risks while safeguarding long-term energy security and strategic autonomy in a volatile regional environment.

Historical Institutional and Identity Factors:

India’s engagement with West Asia is shaped by long-standing historical linkages, institutional cooperation, and evolving strategic partnerships. For decades, Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Iran have played a central role in fulfilling India’s energy requirements. Since the 1990s, expanding trade, labour migration, and economic interdependence have strengthened these relationships. The presence of a large Indian diaspora in the Gulf and sustained energy cooperation has created institutional continuity and path dependency, making stable relations with Gulf states a structural component of India’s foreign policy and energy security strategy.

At the same time, India has significantly expanded its strategic and technological cooperation with Israel and deepened its global partnership with the United States. India’s broader diplomatic orientation is also rooted in its tradition of strategic autonomy, historically associated with leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru and the legacy of the Non-Aligned Movement. Rather than adopting rigid alignments, India seeks to balance relationships with multiple partners simultaneously. From a theoretical perspective, this behaviour aligns with constructivist insights advanced by Alexander Wendt, which emphasize how identity and norms shape state conduct. Consequently, India’s multi-alignment strategy in West Asia reflects both historical experience and a deliberate effort to secure energy supplies while navigating competing geopolitical partnerships.

Research Methodology

Overall Research Design:

This study adopts a qualitative-dominant mixed-methods research design, anchored in Neoclassical Realism and complemented by the concept of Strategic Hedging, to examine how geopolitical tensions in West Asia shape India’s foreign policy behaviour. While the international system generates structural pressures-particularly through conflicts involving Israel-Iran-USA, this study proceeds from the assumption that policy outcomes are mediated by domestic variables such as energy dependence, strategic culture, and leadership perceptions.

The research design is explanatory and interpretive, focusing on tracing the causal relationship between energy security concerns and India’s strategy of multi-alignment in the region, rather than predicting outcomes.

Methods of Data Collection:

1. Qualitative Content Analysis: A systematic qualitative content analysis will be conducted on:

• Official statements by the Ministry of External Affairs
• Speeches of political leadership (2023–2026)
• Parliamentary debates on foreign policy and energy security
• Policy documents related to energy and national security

2. In-Depth Case Study Method:

India is selected as the primary case study due to:

• Its rapidly increasing energy demand
• Heavy dependence on Gulf energy suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates
• Its role as a rising middle power pursuing strategic autonomy

3. Elite Interviews (Conditional / Supplementary):

Where feasible, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with:

• Former diplomats
• Strategic affairs experts
• Energy policy analysts

4. Sources of Data:

The study relies on diverse and triangulated sources, including:

• Government of India documents (MEA, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas)
• International datasets (IEA, OPEC, World Bank, IMF)
• Reports from think tanks such as Observer Research Foundation and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
• Academic journals and policy reports

 Research Questions

The escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia-particularly the rivalry between Israel and Iran-have generated significant disruptions in regional stability, global energy markets, and maritime trade routes. These developments have compelled major energy-importing countries like India, to recalibrate their foreign policy priorities under conditions of heightened uncertainty. This research problem addresses the need for a theoretically grounded explanation of India’s foreign policy behaviour in West Asia, situated within the framework of Neoclassical Realism and complemented by Strategic Hedging. These approaches enable an integrated analysis of how international constraints, domestic economic priorities, and leadership perceptions interact to shape India’s diplomatic and energy strategies in a volatile regional environment.

Central Research Question:

 How does India use multi-alignment diplomacy in West Asia to secure its energy supplies and maintain strategic autonomy within a Neoclassical Realism framework?

Research Gap:

Identification of Research Gap:

 Despite a growing body of literature on geopolitics and energy security in West Asia, three major gaps remain:

 1) Theoretical Gap:

 Traditional realist approaches, including classical realism and Neorealism, explain regional conflicts and power rivalries but fall short in accounting for the nuanced behaviour of strategically autonomous states such as India. While liberal and constructivist frameworks emphasize norms and institutions, they inadequately capture why material considerations often take precedence over normative commitments during crises such as tensions between Israel and Iran.

2) Empirical Gap:

There is limited systematic research linking India’s energy dependence on Gulf countries with its diplomatic conduct in the region. Although existing studies analyse India’s relations with individual states such as Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates, they often treat energy policy and foreign policy as separate domains. Insufficient attention has been paid to how disruptions in energy supply routes, regional conflicts, and market volatility directly influence India’s multi-alignment strategy.

 3) Analytical Gap:

There is a lack of comprehensive scholarship applying Neoclassical Realism to India’s engagement in West Asia by integrating systemic pressures, domestic economic constraints, leadership perceptions, and historical ties within a single analytical framework. The role of Strategic Hedging in explaining India’s simultaneous engagement with competing regional actors also remains underexplored.

This study provides more nuanced approach using systemic variables and domestic leadership perceptions (which used an informed neutral approach rooted in historical experiences) along with strategic hedging to ensure energy security differing from the other existing studies.

India’s energy dependence, strategic vulnerabilities, and diplomacy in the West Asia

 
The Indian reaction to the Strait of Hormuz crisis of 2026 has to be viewed within a larger context: It is a nation that is incredibly energy-dependent, yet it is actively developing how to transform that vulnerability into a strategic advantage by making some clever steps on the international stage. Not a one-off crisis fix but something much more fundamental to Indian conceptualisation of energy along the current-energy lines is what stands out, the old reliance becoming fractured by what follows. 

India’s reliance on energy remains one of the largest structural weaknesses. Syria accounts for 20-23%, Saudi-Arabia 11-15% and UAE 8-10% of crude oil imports by India while in LNG imports Qatar 47%, UAE 13-14% and Oman 5-6% followed by other gulf nations. India is highly sensitive to any disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This is not merely keeping the lights on, but it is also about macroeconomic stability.

This dependency is very deep and signifies major strategic weaknesses, particularly as the West Asia has continued to be one of the most volatile areas of the international geopolitical scene. The greatest weakness is geographical, focusing on the straits. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint of the world for the transportation of oil and blocking off or pushbacks or by asymmetrical wars could be a constant threat to Indian energy security. With rising enmity between regional powers, such as Iran, Israel and the United States, the chances of disruptions in the Strait are immediately a threat to the physical supply of crude to Indian shores. Extended, unbreached blockades could likely paralyse Indian refinery operations, impact transportation systems in India and lead to significant fuel shortages. The psychological risk in these shipping lanes makes insurance premiums extremely high, and costs for energy in India very high, even if there is no real risk.

The implications of these strategic weaknesses are huge. As crude oil demands are inherently tied to the geopolitical situation in the West Asia, India’s macroeconomic stability is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of crude oil. If there are price disputes or emergency situations like the unrest in West Asia or sabotage of oil infrastructure, it will directly add to India’s import cost. This push immediately pushes up the current account deficit, always and inevitably causing the depreciation of the Rupee of India. Moreover, high domestic fuel prices have ripple effects on the economy – such as inflationary effects in goods production, manufacturing and transportation. For this reason, central banking authorities are often left with no choice but to tighten their monetary policy in response to imported inflation from energy prices, limiting economic growth. Oil is not the only vulnerable fuel; as the world moves towards cleaner fuels, use of LNG has also risen steadily, to complicate India’s pricing situation during a crisis, when India is more exposed to price fluctuations in the spot markets. Strategically, therefore, India’s vulnerability in the West Asia is not a foreign policy consideration alone; it is a factor crucial to the nation’s economic well-being and efforts to combat poverty.

India has, of course, come to the realisation that relying passively is unsustainable and has thus refocused its West Asian policy. Until now, India’s approach to the region had been transactional, taking a ‘Look West’ attitude to building secure dealings with everyone with an interest to ensure oil security and safeguard India’s significant expatriate community in the Gulf.

In the modern era, with its aspirations and economic influence in the global arena, this attitude has become a more active with “Link and Act West” policy (2022). This strategic shift recognises that in the short term, dependency on energy cannot be removed, but by changing the nature of the relationship, it can be mutually advantageous. The key purpose of modernised diplomacy is to replace unbalanced energy dependence with the interdependent nature of today’s complex economies. India is making efforts for long-term contracts, stake ownership of the oil and gas fields in the West Asia and joint ventures in refining and petrochemicals. New Delhi would like the West Asian sovereign wealth funds to invest in infrastructure and energy in India, thereby having an interest in India’s long-term economic stability and growth.

One of the defining aspects of this redefined diplomacy is the broadening of bilateral ties from hydrocarbons, where trade was the primary concern, to security, defence, and digital infrastructure. The key feature of this new diplomacy is extending bilateral cooperation to other areas such as security and defence, digital infrastructure, and hydrocarbons, the area in which commerce was the most significant. New Delhi has carefully maintained its strategic balance in its relationship with opposing regional groupings at the same time. India also has excellent relations with Israel and, at the same time, aims at strengthening relations with the Arab Gulf states, notwithstanding maintaining some functional relationship with Iran.

India is also diplomatically engaging the regional actors to reduce the short-term risks. The safe passage negotiations with Iran and the concept of using naval escorts demonstrate readiness to apply all the diplomatic and military instruments in order to maintain the energy streams. These actions underscore the fact that energy security has become a fundamental component of national security, beyond being an economic agenda. 

However, all things considered, India’s reaction to the Hormuz crisis demonstrates a clever game between agency and dependence. Although we continue to rely structurally on imports of energy, we are in the process of renegotiating that relationship by diversification, diplomacy, and internal adjustments.

The 2026 crisis is not only a test of our level of preparedness; it is also a demonstration that India has a developing energy policy that is coming together. Combating the short-term resilience and long-term vision, India has been shifting away from vulnerability towards possessing strategic leverage. The most difficult part is maintaining the momentum, ensuring policy ambitions are positively translated into tangible outcomes, and seeing through an ever-increasing geopolitical maze where energy is being converted not only to resources but also to power.

Way Ahead

As India navigates its ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ goals, energy security remains a crucial cornerstone of rapidly growing Indian Economy. With over 45% oil and over 69% LNG import from west Asia the region remains pivotal to India’s Energy Security strategy. India’s approach to energy security must evolve from transactional engagement to more comprehensive interdependent, resilient and strategic partnership. Free trade agreements with UAE (2022) and Oman (2025) and potential ongoing talks with GCC and Israel are significant steps in the direction.

A pragmatic way forward lies in reducing vulnerability without undermining long standing partnerships. Apart from diversification of oil imports India should negotiate long term stable agreements with major gulf partners ensuring both fair pricing and continuity of oil supply even during conflicts in the region.

India is enhancing its non-renewable energy capacity with partnerships such as the International Solar Alliance, Brazil-India biofuel cooperation, and EU green tech pacts present opportunities for trade and technology transfer that may offset infrastructure challenges and fill financing gaps. West Asian states themselves preparing for post oil-economy and green technology provides collaboration opportunities in clean energy co-production, technology transfer and Infrastructure investments.

Multi-Alignment should be used through issue-based coalitions. Balancing relations among competing regional actors while engaging them with mini-laterals like I2U2 requires diplomatic agility ensuring that energy interests remain secured amid political conflicts.

Strengthening energy infrastructure and investments in alternative shipping routes like IMEC and INSTC will enhance supply chain and bilateral trades. India should also promote private firms to invest oil fields and projects in gulf to secure equity oil.

Energy security must be integrated with economic and security policy. As US-Saudi petro-dollar agreement expires, India can negotiate bilateral trades in local currency with GCC states. Alternate payment system like UPI will not transform engagement but develops strategic partnership in a multipolar WANA.

In essence, India’s future energy security will depend not on disengagement from West Asia but on balancing continuity with transformation rooted in diversification, transition and diplomatic balancing in uncertain geopolitical environment of WANA.

Conclusion

India’s energy security strategy reflects pragmatic and evolving approach shaped by structural constraints and domestic considerations. With heavy oil and natural gas import dependent state, India has consistently maintained stable energy access by carefully balancing strategic relations with West Asian states from Cold War era to Unipolar and now multi-polar world which represents a calibrated response with changing dynamics in region.

Through the lens of Neo-classical Realism, it became evident that India’s foreign policy is driven by the interplay of systemic pressures such as- shifting power balances, alliances and energy market uncertainties and domestic factors including Leadership perceptions, economic priorities. Also, Strategic Hedging explains how India simultaneously maintains warm relations with regional rivals likes Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, UAE etc. thereby reducing risks associated with overdependence on any single partner. This is also evident recent Iran-Israel-US conflict where India criticises Iranian attacks on oil and civilian facilities of gulf states while signing condolence with Iranian counterpart and getting essential navigation clearance in Strait of Hormuz for oil and Natural gas passage.

India’s energy diplomacy in West Asia thus emerges as a form of strategic balancing that avoid any rigid alignment while ensuring interests amid turmoil. The partnership does not remain constraint to transactional oil buyer seller but also partnership in defence, infrastructure, technology and non-renewable energy sector.

However, sustaining this delicate equilibrium presents ongoing challenges. Shifting Alliances, escalating regional conflict Unpredictable nature of great power competition in West Asia and global transition to green energy with net zero carbon emission goals consistently test New Delhi’s diplomatic agility. India should diversify its import options and partner in gulf post oil economy vision. The growing defence market of India, finance technology and expanding market of India can serve as catalyst for interdependence and trade surplus, thus ensuring energy security and strategic autonomy for India.

Ultimately, India’s multi-alignment in West Asia serves as a pragmatic and highly effective blueprint for navigating a multipolar world, proving that strategic autonomy and deep, diversified engagement can successfully coexist.

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