Author: Priyanshu Keshri

Abstract

This paper examines the causal architecture of the ongoing West Asia conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and its cascading effects on global energy markets and India’s energy security. India’s structural dependence on imported hydrocarbons—crude oil import dependency reaching nearly 89 percent in FY 2023–24 – renders it acutely vulnerable to disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint through which substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transits. The paper argues that the crisis, and the resulting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply shock in India, is not the product of unintended confrontation but of calculated escalation rooted in four interlocking causes: contested perceptions of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the collapse of diplomatic mechanisms such as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), militarization dynamics exemplified by the Twelve-Day War, and the broader theoretical relationship between petrostates and militarized interstate disputes. The analysis situates India’s energy predicament within a condition of “dual energy dependency,” in which continued reliance on fossil fuels coexists with an expanding renewable energy transition.

Keywords: Strait of Hormuz, Iran nuclear program, energy security, petrostates, India LPG crisis, JCPOA, geopolitical escalation