This paper explores how India’s clean energy cooperation with Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh can serve as a source of regional strategic influence through the concept of “developmental deterrence.” Using Trade Expectations Theory, it examines whether cross-border electricity trade, hydropower agreements, and solar investments can strengthen economic interdependence and influence neighbouring countries’ relations with China and its Belt and Road Initiative. The study proposes the Green Connectivity and Regional Interdependence Model (GCRIM) and finds that, although India’s energy partnerships create significant economic ties and strategic opportunities, they have not substantially altered the political behaviour of its neighbours. Instead, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh continue to engage with both India and China through a strategy of hedging. The paper concludes that India’s clean energy cooperation holds considerable untapped strategic potential, whose effectiveness depends on the reliability, fairness, and mutual benefits of regional energy partnerships.
