Authors : Tanuj Samaddar, A R Sangeetha, Md. Rizwan, Ankush Kumar

Within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a flagship undertaking of great significance throughout South Asia as a strategically significant regional, economic, and geopolitical undertaking. Wolf (2019) conceived the corridor between the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China and the Gwadar Port in the Balochistan province of Pakistan via a sprawling network of roads, railways, energy initiatives, and special economic zones (SEZs).

New Delhi sees CPEC as a significant security threat that violates India’s sovereignty, escalates border tensions, and redraws regional power disparities, even though Beijing touts it as a forerunner of economic revitalization and regional connectivity.  (Pant and Joshi , 2017)

Its passage through the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan territory, a region still a crucial part of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and subject to territorial claim by India, is the main argument supporting India’s strategic concerns on CPEC. CPEC’s effects cover a more Chinese military presence in the Indian Ocean Region, the militarization of economic corridors, and regional economic architecture realignment.

Through the lenses of sovereignty, economic dependence, military tactics, and geopolitical reconfigurations, this research charts the complex security consequences of CPEC for India. This study seeks to provide a subtle view of the manifold security threats presented by CPEC and the corresponding countermeasures India uses to minimize its negative effects by combining a large amount of academic work.

The sovereignty narrative surrounding the CPEC has caused intense unease among Indian policy and strategic circles. Pant and Joshi (2017) among others argue that the corridor’s crossing through Gilgit-Baltistan directly violates India’s territorial integrity, hence supporting Pakistan’s effective administrative authority over the area. Kumar (2019) adds that China’s infrastructure related spending in the area practically acknowledges Pakistan’s territorial claims, thereby worsening the legal and political deadlock over Kashmir. India’s strategic apprehensions are further accentuated by the potential encirclement effect precipitated by China’s economic corridors, collectively known as the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy (Brewster, 2018).  The encirclement theory posits that Beijing’s financial statecraft is fundamentally tied to its larger geostrategic aims, where infrastructural investments act as channels for security leverage 

In addition, India’s positive outreach to regional actors—namely Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asian Republics—through infrastructural ventures like the Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is indicative of a move to offset Pakistan’s geoeconomic centrality in CPEC. The synergizing of Indo-Pacific alliances, more specifically through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), is an adjunct mechanism to counterbalance Chinese strategic gains (Jacob, 2020).

Economic and Military Aspects of CPEC Influencing India’s National Security

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has fundamentally altered the economic landscape of South Asia, with notable implications for India’s national security. Pakistan’s increasing reliance on Chinese investments has spurred significant infrastructure development along India’s western border, raising fears of strategic encirclement. The corridor linking Gwadar Port to China’s Xinjiang province enhances Pakistan’s logistical capabilities, allowing for more efficient military mobilization (Pant,2018) . Chinese involvement in vital transport and energy projects in Pakistan challenges India’s trade networks, potentially diminishing India’s influence in South Asia (Small, 2020). Furthermore, as Pakistan grapples with a growing debt burden from the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, this economic imbalance has become closer aligned with Chinese policies, thereby complicating India’s geopolitical position (Rana,2021).

The military implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) present significant security concerns for India, especially given the increasing Chinese presence at Gwadar Port. Analysts indicate that what was initially intended as a trade hub may now serve dual military functions, potentially allowing China to station naval assets in the Arabian Sea (Singh, 2019). This development raises apprehensions about a possible Chinese-Pakistani naval partnership, which could undermine India’s maritime security. Moreover, CPEC traverses Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), a region that India claims as its own. China’s investments in infrastructure, including highways and railways in POK, bolster Pakistan’s ability to mobilize forces along the Line of Control (LoC), heightening border tensions. Furthermore, reports suggest that Chinese-funded security deployments along the CPEC route have increased militarization in border areas, raising the likelihood of potential conflict scenarios (Sharma, 2022).

The expanding military and economic partnership between China and Pakistan has prompted a more assertive Pakistani approach to border disputes, resulting in a rise in ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) (Malik, 2022). This corridor enhances China’s geo-economic influence, positioning it as a key South Asian player and marginalizing India’s role in the region. The potential for a two-front war scenario—where India could face simultaneous military threats from China to the north and Pakistan to the west—has become a significant concern for India’s defense strategists. Furthermore, China’s debt-trap diplomacy in Pakistan raises alarms about long-term geopolitical realignments, posing an additional threat to India’s strategic interests.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has significantly transformed India’s national security landscape, impacting economic sovereignty and military readiness. The corridor’s path through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) has exacerbated border conflicts, and Pakistan’s increasing economic dependence on China fortifies the Sino-Pak alliance, thereby challenging India’s position in the region. From a military perspective, the potential dual-use nature of Gwadar Port, alongside infrastructure that enhances Pakistan’s military mobility, heightens the risk of cross-border skirmishes. In response to these developments, India must bolster its border security, strengthen alliances with global partners, and seek to expand alternative trade routes, such as Chabahar Port. Addressing these complex challenges necessitates a comprehensive security strategy integrating diplomatic, economic, and military measures to protect India’s strategic interests.

Impact of CPEC in Indo-Pak border

In such a scenario, which is likely to be created by India’s concessions to Pakistan, the Indo-Pak border dimensions along with border dynamics would substantially change. Such considerations most certainly include the geographical base of Pakistan and India as an extension of these countries to Afghanistan as it brings the vast areas of Balochistan, Sindh, and the southern provinces of Afghanistan into geographical proximity to the western borders of northern India via scanty highlands and plateaus connecting these desert-based provinces. Development in bordering areas is being fostered by CPEC for the future strategic implications. This section describes the ISR ramifications of CPEC, particularly in terms of changing the stability of borders, their impact on relations of regional power, and India-Pak tensions.

That CPEC goes through the so-called ‘Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’, which India claims as its territory, is one of the most critical issues for India. As per data, investments in PoK infrastructure by China, notably the Gwadar Port, and the Karakoram Highway, compromise India’s strategic interests and territorial integrity (Joshi, 2021). All of these have gone up across the Line of Control as well as increased India’s direct tensions with Pakistan and China, thereby leading to avenues of diplomatic dispute. 

Moreover, assertiveness in border issues has increasingly become associated with Chinese meddling in Pakistani infrastructure, which has tended to galvanize Pakistan into a more assertive stance in border issues. The data shows that the number of ceasefire violations and border confrontations along the LoC has increased since the onset of CPEC (Sharma, 2022). They were extremely difficult.

In addition, the Indian-Pakistani border has now begun to change its economic dynamics with the CPEC. This can return the economics dependence to the increased business activity along India’s border in Pakistan, given now that Pakistan relies more on Chinese investments. It is also assumed that infrastructure expansion benefits Pakistan; however, the economic vulnerabilities are due to debt incurred from loans borrowed from China (Rana, 2021).

More projects in energy and additional road infrastructures along the borders result to India looking towards an encircled economy. Other researches also show that the access of China to important logistics hygiene in Pakistan could led to an impact in India’s trade routes within the region (Basu & Gupta, 2020).

Militarization of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has also created strain on the Indo-Pak border balance. The presence of Chinese investment in Gwadar Port and the subsequent establishment of Pakistani military checkpoints along the CPEC corridor has overall improved security along the border. Some analysts believe this factor may well serve as an indirect lifeline for such armed groups in crossing India’s western borders, thus aggravating security threats (Malik, 2022). 

In addition, China’s military presence concerning key areas has raised concerns about an undue foreign influence on India’s borders. The findings of the study suggest that these security alignments have made matters along the Line of Control more tense, affecting India’s counterinsurgency endeavors.

As indicated by the report, CPEC has changed the dynamics of the Indo-Pakistan border by stoking geopolitical tensions, transforming economic interdependencies, and creating new security challenges. The corridor’s passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir has lent tension to border clashes that have increased India’s diplomatic protests. China’s increasing cooperation with Pakistan only serves to obscure India’s assessment of regional security. 

While CPEC projects related to infrastructure are Pakistan’s economic boon, the country may be doing itself economic harm by being increasingly beholden to China. This infrastructure along the border can be a countermeasure to India’s influence in the region and its trading networks. Chinese militaries and infrastructure activities near the Line of Control point to India’s need to boost border checks, surveillance, and diplomatic activity with other stakeholders. Therefore, India needs to adopt a multi-pronged approach to keep these threats in check- diplomatic engagement, economic countermeasures, and military preparedness to sustain regional stability and ensure its sovereignty.

Geopolitical Ramification of CPEC in the Indian Ocean

The gigantic Indian Ocean, the third largest water body on earth has 34 littoral states surrounding it, making it a significant travel route for oil and other tradable commodities via Sea Lanes of Communication(SLOCs). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) on the other hand poses a security threat, which comes with both opportunity and weakness to the Indian Subcontinent, as it passes through the Himalayas in the Indian territory which includes the Indo-Pak border. The initiative was started in 2013 to enhance China’s access to vital maritime routes while developing Pakistan’s economic development and security against India. (Khizar,2023).The implications of CPEC extend beyond just bilateral relations. It holds a deep connection among countries with respect to broader geopolitical alignments in the region and sentiments affecting the same. The Indian Ocean has only gained its geopolitical importance since the late 1960’s which was once neglected by powerful countries. Today nearly 80% of the oil trade is done through the Indian Ocean.  Although from China’s perspective, CPEC is a purely economic move, the world definitely agrees to the fact that it comes with Geopolitical measurements, especially for India and Pakistan. For Pakistan the major geo-economic concern remains in the poor infrastructure and limited financial resources, implying that this project will be costly for China (Rahman., Khan., Lifang., & Hussain, 2021). 

As Indian Ocean gains further importance as a global trade route, especially for energy and goods, it also comes with security and military concerns posed by China. These concerns especially were heightened by China’s plan to develop Hambantota in Sri Lanka in 2007 and Chittagong port in Bangladesh, which China calls it “string of pearls” strategy. But with the coming of CPEC which mainly focuses on the development of the Gawadar port in the arabian sea coast of sountern Pakistan. The Gwadar port is a deep-water port close to strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel. (Izuyama & Kurita,2017). The power bearing of Gwadar port by China will give China the project power in the western reaches of Indian Ocean. This is mainly to get hold of the strategic interest of safeguarding of its maritime interest which is also the reason for it to shift its main focus westwards. The growing influence of Pakistan-China in the Indian Ocean will curtail India’s control over the Arabian sea in the future. (Fayyaz,2019). While the geopolitical anticipation continues, there is also a dark truth to China’s side. China has been taking advantage of the emotional rivalry between India and Pakistan. It is not new that China has been using Pakistan and a strategic against its very able peer India. Although US is in just the observer position of the CPEC, being a global power, it considers the CPEC to be a problematic development in the area as CPEC helps increase China’s influence in South Asia. Through the CPEC and the Gwadar port project, Pakistan has potentially entered the Cold War along with Pakistan against the US and India. The Sino-U.S. Cold War is a clear-cut example. This nevertheless adds to the rivalry between India and Pakistan in the nuclear age which increases security concerns for India.

In essence, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) presents India with a major military and geopolitical challenge that is changing regional power dynamics. Passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir raises India’s sovereignty worries and increases border frictions even as it reinforces Sino-Pakistani strategic relations. Particularly with a two-front conflict capability and China military expansion in the Indian Ocean, the military and economic aspects of the corridor present strategic risks. Among the changing geopolitical circumstances, India must embrace a many-pronged strategy including military preparedness, economic countermeasures, and diplomatic involvement to defend its national interests and keep regional stability.

References

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